Monday, September 29, 2008

Weekly Trading Highlights.

SENSEX & NIFTY now at their long term major supports.

Be extreme cautious in any fresh shorts in panic.


BSE index: (13102) Consider for this week...13020 a nearest support break below which it'll fall down further to 12945, 12866 & 12767 initially which are crucial supports. Break below 12767 sudden panic will drag it down to 12563 which is a most crucial support; buy on declines keeping stop loss of 12425.
Upward side 13390 a crucial resistance closing above which it'll turn bit positive & surge up to 13854. A close above 13854 it'll strengthen further & move up to 14221. A close above 14221 it'll turn total positive & spurt up to 15250.
Downward side a close below 12425 it'll turn very weak & fall down to 11900 & 11450. Consider 11900 to 11450 major long term supports in any panic.
* For investors buying at around 12500-12000 keeping stop loss of 11450 seems best risk reward ratio.

Nifty: (3985) Consider for this week...Expect it to fall down further to 3947, 3919 & 3866. Buy on declines keeping stop loss of 3799.
Upward side 4052 a nearest crucial resistance closing above which it'll turn bit positive & spurt up to 4199 initially. A close above 4199 it'll strengthen further & move up to 4303-4329.
A close above 4329 it'll turn total positive & shoot up to 4614 in coming days.
Downward side break below 3799 it'll turn very weak & fall down further to 3753 & 3702 initially.
A close below 3702 it'll crash down to 3477.

STOCKS TO WATCH

RELIANCE: (1961) 1945 & 1877 crucial support & trend decider. 2073 7 2127 crucial resistance & trend decider.

REL CAP: (1172) 1146-1135 & 1084 crucial supports to watch out for in further panic.

REL INFRA: (850) 820 & 802 crucial support & trend decider.

SBI: (1434) Looks weak. Break below 1422 expect further fall. 1350-1322 crucial support area to watch out for on extreme lower levels.

BOI, PNB & BOB: Looks weak.

ICICI Bank: (561) Looks bit weak. 518 a crucial support & trend decider.

AXIS Bank: (705) 702 & 725 crucial trend deciders.

KOTAK Bank
: (569) Looks weak. Watch out for crucial support at 520-510 on extreme lower levels.

DLF: (370) Break below 365 expect 345 which is a major support to watch out for in extreme panic.

L&T
: (2468) 2455 & 2402 crucial supports to watch out for in panic.

Email: shivaam2003@yahoo.com

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

NSE STOCK WATCH

SBI: (1503) Looks very weak, sell. Expect 1475-1463 & 1434. Consider 1434 a most crucial support & trend decider.

JSWSL & TISCO: Looks very weak, sell.

RIL
: (2010) Break below 2000 expect heavy selling. 1950-1940 support area to watch out for.

REL CAP: (1215) 1187 a nearest crucial support to watch out for.

KOTAK Bank: (594) 578 & 555 crucial support & trend decider. Buy in panic.

L&T: (2530) 2504 & 2439 crucial support & trend decider.

LITL & NCC: Looks weak.

DLF: (395) 389 a nearest support & trend decider.

MARUTI: (701) Break below 694 expect 681. Selling on higher levels will be seen.

SATYAM & INFOSYS: 318 & 1457 supports to watch out for in further panic.

Monday, September 22, 2008

Weekly Trading Highlights. 22nd sep. 2008.

The week that went by
Global markets witnessed one of the most volatile trades in the week that went by - a heavy fall and a tremendous pull back rally.
The global stock indices plunked heavily on the back of the failure news from the US financial giant Lehman Brothers, and further from AIG
Inc., and then Merrill Lynch which was later bought by Bank of America. AIG had to seek refuge with the government to avoid a collapse.
Later the markets recovered as a result of the decision announced by the major central banks to pump liquidity heavily into the banking
systems to overcome the turmoil. Apart from this, the short covering, as a result of the temporary ban imposed by US and UK, added to the
surge in the European and US markets. US’ Securities Exchange Commission banned short selling in 799 financial stocks; while UK.’s
Financial Service Authority also banned the short-selling in Financial company shares.
Almost all the stock exchanges through out the world rallied tremendously, recovering about 7-9% from the week’s low. Russia led the rally with
a 22% jump from the week’s low.
NSE Nifty, after opening at 4231, crashed to 3799 in the first 4 days of the week’s trading. The recovery emerged from there and the index
closed at 4245, making a weekly gain of 14 points. BSE Sensex opened at 13663, and fell to 12558, falling nearly 1100 points; later recovered the
loss and closed at 14042.
Technical Outlook :
The Indian markets have bounced back remarkable from the week’s lows.
Momentum indicators are indicating some more upside. Stochastic Oscillators is showing the upside to continue a little further. RSI is trading
above the 50 points mark.
At current levels 4380 is expected to act as the Critical level for the NSE Nifty. A trade above this can find resistance at 4490. The major support
for the week can be expected to come at 4175, followed by 3975.
Market is expected to open with a positive bias and can show some more upside in the first trading sessions of the coming week. later, selling
pressure is expected to emerge from higher levels.
Week Ahead :
The global market sentiments are going to guide the market in the week ahead. After the initial reaction the rising Crude Oil price and the Indo-
US nuclear deal come back to the scenario.
The lack of substantiative open interest build up in the Nifty futures, despite of such a tremendous rally is indicative that the upside is more
contributed by short-covering, rather than fresh positions buildups. The fact that the global market rally, especially those in US and UK, who
led the pack, are due to the short-covering is also adding to the cause of concern.
The chances for the index to sustain at higher levels is doubtful, at this point of time.

Monday, September 8, 2008

STOCK Market Time Change Due to Sun outage

NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE INFORMED ABOUT MARKET TIME CHANGE DUE TO SUN OUTAGE From September 24, 2008 to October 8, 2008 between 1125 hrs and 1205 hrs. The Detailed circular as follows from Nse official website.


NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE OF INDIA LIMITED (NSE)

CURRENCY DERIVATIVES SEGMENT

CIRCULAR





Circular No.NSE/CD/008/2008 September 2, 2008

Download No: NSE/CD/11229



Dear Members,



Change in market timing & September 2008 contract expiry time due to Sun Outage



Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), has informed the Exchange that there will be SUN OUTAGE from September 24, 2008 to October 8, 2008 between 1125 hrs and 1205 hrs. Some members may face loss of connectivity during this period, due to Sun outage. Accordingly the market timings of the Currency Derivatives segment are being modified as follows:



Normal Market / Exercise Market Open time : 0900 hrs.

Normal Market close time due to sun outage : 1125 hrs to 1205 hrs.

Pre Open time after sun outage : 1205 hrs to 1210 hrs

Normal Market re-open time after sun outage: 1210 hrs.

Normal Market close time : 1700 hrs.

Position Limit/Collateral value Set up cut off time : till 1730 hrs.

Trade modification end time : till 1730 hrs.





Members are informed that during the above period viz. 1125 hrs to 1205 hrs:

Trading shall remain suspended.
The facilities of Position Limits / Collateral Value set up and Trade Modification may not be available.
Members are advised to remain logged on and NOT logoff from the Trader Work Station during this period.


Members are advised to note that during pre-open phase, they will not be permitted to place any new orders or modify existing orders. However, they will be allowed to cancel any of the existing orders.



In view of the above, the USDINR futures contract expiring on September 25, 2008 shall expire at 1120 hrs instead of 1200 hrs on September 25, 2008.

Consequently, the new contract USDINR futures expiring on September 28, 2009 shall be made available for trading from 1210 hrs on September 25, 2008.



The change in market timings shall be effective from September 24, 2008 to October 8, 2008.



For any clarifications, members are advised to contact the following officials:

Mr Altaf Shaikh, Mr Vikramaditya and Mr Arvind Goyal at 26598131 and 26598164





For and on behalf of

National Stock Exchange of India Limited



Suprabhat Lala

Asst. Vice President

NSE | BSE | Market This Week |

Market Outlook:The week that went by
The falling Crude oil price was the main attraction for the first half of the week’s trade. On the back of this, Nifty rallied to 4522, after opening
at 4356. However, due to the negative global market situation and the political tensions on the Nuke deal, the selling pressure started in the
second half of the week. The slightly calming inflation figures, which came at 12.34%, failed to make a positive impact in the market. Sensex
opened at 14412, made a high of 15106, and later made an almost flat closing at 14483. Nifty also closed almost flat at 4352.

Technical Outlook :
After a positive start, the market went into a selling mode. The Indices closed almost flat during the week’s trade.
For NSE Nifty, the technical indicators are pointing towards some more downside in the coming week. RSI have moved below the 50 points
mark in the daily chart. Stochastic Oscillators have entered the overbought zone.
At current levels 4280 is expected to act as the critical support level. A fall below this is expected to take the index towards the downside
support of 4070. The first resistance for the week will be 4425; Further, any upside is not expected to extend above 4495.
The Elliott wave analysis of the index is also indicating further downside in the coming days.

Week Ahead :
The outcome of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) is expected to affect the initial trading session of the coming week. Another thing that the market will be looking forward will be the OPEC meeting , which is scheduled to the next Tuesday (September 9th). The negative figures from the US jobs data also will weigh the market.

08 September 2008, Monday | Daily Market Analysis

SENSEX (Close- 14483.83)

Sensex has seen weakness on last trading day and closed below 14500 marks. Technically Sensex has major support at 14000 marks. This sell off was much inspired by global weakness. We cannot ignore the fact that market is in over sold zone. I like to say that a lot has chenged for stock market on this weekend and good reaction is expected. Technical signal is still favouring for the target above 15000 marks for Sensex. Caution required in metal stocks. We can expect firm trade in banking and technology pack. Over all short trades should be avoided still you may get stock specific short trade opportunity.

Support - 14430/14200/14000

Resistance - 15000/15165/15320


NIFTY (Close- 4352.30)

Nifty has technical trading support at 4300 marks and has good support at 4250 zone. Technically one can expect a move above 4400 marks. One can prefer long in any lower levels.

Support - 4320/4278/4250
Resistance - 4384/4421/4450

Thursday, September 4, 2008

4th Sep. 2008 Stock Market Today

Up move to continue. Buy on every decline.

For today watch out for hurdles at 15255 & 4568.


BSE index: (14050) Consider 14824 a nearest & 14672 a solid support, keep stop loss of 14672 to your buys.
Upward side it'll rush up further to 15143 & 15255 initially. Watch out for 15255 as it's a crucial hurdle.
Crossover above 15255 it'll spurt up heavily to 15343 & there after to 15520 which is a last crucial resistance.


Nifty: (4504) Consider 4467 a solid support. Upward side it'll spurt up further to 4568 which is a crucial hurdle to watch out for where some profit booking not ruled out.
Crossover above 4568 it'll spurt up further to 4596 & 4641 which is a last crucial resistance.
Downward side break below 4467 it'll fall down correctively to 4432 & 4408. Buy or remain long keeping stop loss of 4400.

Nifty SEP FUT: (4516) Expect it to rush up further to 4548-4563 & 4582 which is a solid resistance area where profit booking not ruled out.
Crossover above 4582 it'll spurt up further to 4658 & 4698.
Downward side 4486 a nearest & 4447 solid support. Break below 4447 it'll fall down correctively to 4410. Buy on every decline keeping stop loss of 4380.

STOCKS TO WATCH

ICICI Bank: (713) Looks good only. Now watch out for hurdle at 733.

AXIS Bank: (760) Looks good only. Watch out for hurdle at 777.

KOTAK Bank: (650) Looks good. Buy. Crossover above 683 expect 720.

SBI: (1521) 1546 a hurdle & trend decider for the day.


BHEL: (1785) Crossover above 1823 expect 1900.

REL INFRA & RCOM: Looks good, buy on declines.

PATEL ENGG: (422) Buy.

L&T: (2680) Buy.

STRIDES ARCO: (203) Buy.

JP ASSO: (173) Crossover above 175 expect 184.

BOI: (285) Book profit on higher levels.

-DHARMESH BHATT
The only name in 100% pure technical analysis.
Email: shivaam2003@yahoo.com

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Stock Tips Today

BHEL: (1722) Buy. Crossover above 1740 huge up move will start.

SBI: (1416) Expect 1449 & 1472. Book profit on higher levels.

BOI: (272) Looks good only.

ICICI Bank, KOTAK & AXIS Bank: 650, 583 & 698 solid supports now. Buy or remain long.


PUNJ LLOYD: (311) Looks good only. Remain long. Expect 332.

JP ASSO: (162.50) Looks good.

STRIDES ARCO: (198) Buy. Crossover above 206 huge buying will be seen.

Nifty / Sensex technical analysis

Crossover above 14587 & 4369 heavy fresh buying will underway.

Crossover above 4400 NIFTY FUT will shoot up to 4460, 4515 & 4557.

14281 & 4281 solid supports...Buy on every decline.

Banking, select metal, select real estates look extremely hot.


BSE index: (14499) Buy or remain long considering 14414 a solid support keeping stop loss of 14281.

Upward side crossover above 14587 it'll spurt up very heavily to 14694-14712 & there after to 14814 & 14908.


Nifty: (4348) Buy or remain long considering 4323 a solid support keeping stop loss of 4281.
Upward side crossover above 4369 it'll shoot up to 4408-4417 & there after to 4449 & 4471.

Nifty SEP FUT: (4360) Buy or remain long considering 4321 a solid support keeping stop loss of 4275.
Upward side crossover above 4380 it'll shoot up to 4400 & there after to 4424, 4460 & 4516, 4557.

Monday, September 1, 2008

Stock Tips this week 1st Sep. 2008

Stock Tips this week 1st Sep. 2008

Stocks to Watch

AXIS Bank: (723) Buy on declines. 695 & 683 solid supports.

KOTAK Bank: (605) Buy on declines. 583 & 573 solid supports.

ICICI Bank: (672) Buy on declines. 666 & 646 solid supports.

BOI: (267) Buy on declines.

SBI: (1403) 1422 a hurdles to watch out for.

REL CAP: (1374) 1389 & 1460 crucial resistance & trend decider.


RELIANCE: (2137) Looks still weak. 2145 & 2191 solid resistances. 2007 a crucial support to watch out for in panic.

PUNJ LLOYD: (302) Buy on declines. Crossover above 306 huge up move will be seen.

Weekly Trading Highlights. 1st sep. 2008.

The week that went by
Sensex rose 163.04 points or 1.13% to 14,564.53 in the week ended Friday, 29 August 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty gained 32.55 points or 0.75%
at 4,360 in the week. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 1,211.70 crore in August 2008 (till 28 August 2008). FIIs sold
shares worth Rs 28,513.60 crore in the calendar year 2008. Mutual funds sold shares worth Rs 700.40 crore in August 2008 (till 27 August
2008). The gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.9% in the June 2008 quarter from a year earlier, easing from the previous quarter's 8.8% rise
as industrial activity slowed due to monetary tightening. The GDP growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal year was lower than market
expectations of a rise of a little above 8%. The government released the GDP data during trading hours on Friday, 29 August 2008.


Technical Outlook :NSE Nifty (Last Closing: 4360.00)
Last week was a highly volatile trading week. After a positive opening, Nifty and Sensex witnessed a huge sell off, before recovering a portion
of the loss during the last trading day. Market is expected to remain volatile in the coming week also.
Technical Indicators like Stochastic Oscillators are indicating slight recovery from these levels. However, MACD is still in the selling mode. RSI
has closed above 50 points mark.
Market is expected to continue the recovery in the opening half of the coming week. Selling is expected to emerge from the higher levels.
For NSE Nifty, 4400 is likely to act as the critical resistance level for the coming days. A close above this is not expected at this point of time.
However, a close above this will find next resistance at 4480.
4300 will be the Critical level for the coming week. If falls and sustains below this, 4195 will be the downside support, followed by 4050.

Week Ahead :
The market may extend Friday’s (29 August 2008) strong gains triggered by softening inflation. Inflation has been a major cause of worry for
the domestic markets since the past few months. Market will also take cues from another meeting of Nuclear Suppliers group in Vienna that
begins on 4 September 2008. Market will closely watch developments on the Indo-US nuclear deal. As per reports, Japan plans to support a
civil nuclear accord between the US and India. Japan will back the deal, at a two-day session of the Nuclear Suppliers group (NSG) in Vienna
that begins on 4 September 2008. US plans to sell nuclear power plant technologies and fuel to India under a bilateral nuclear cooperation
agreement. All 45 members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group including Japan must approve the nuclear accord, which the US Congress must
also pass for the deal to come through.

_Report from JRG SECURITIES Official Website