Weekly Report August 25

Stock Market Outlook:
Weak global cues due to the credit market turmoil and financial crisis has created a lot of pressure in our markets. Interest rate sensitive sectors like banking, real estate and automobile witnessed intense selling pressure. A bounce back in crude oil prices also kept investors on the edge. The barometer index BSE Sensex declined 322.69 points or 2.19% to 14,401.49 in the week ended Friday, 22 August 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty lost 103.25 points or 2.33% at 4327.45 in the week. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 1109.50 crore in August 2008 (till 21 August 2008). FIIs sold shares worth Rs 28,411.50 crore in the calendar year 2008. Mutual funds sold shares worth Rs 983.50 crore in August 2008 (till 21 August 2008).

Technical Outlook :
NSE Nifty (Last Closing: 4327.45)
As we have mentioned, the Indian markets have entered the selling mode after testing the target resistance level of 4640. Further downside is
expected to emerge in the market during the coming months.
The MACD has registered a negative crossing and RSI has fallen below 50 points mark - both indicating a short-term downside in the index.
The Elliott wave analysis of the NSE Nifty is indicating that the index has entered the 3rd wave of the 5-wave correction.
The recovery which the market witnessed in the closing day of last week will find resistance at 4365, followed by 4400. The Nifty is
expected to emerge into the next selling mode, before crossing 4435 level. On downside, 4240 will act as the first support for the
index. followed by 4140 and 4070.


Stock Market Week Ahead :
With no major key events scheduled in the forthcoming week, the market will closely watch global stock market cues. But it may turn volatile on
account of expiry of August 2008 derivatives contracts on Thursday, 28 August 2008. Market will closely watch developments on the Indo-US
nuclear deal. A two-day meeting of the 45 countries of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) began in Vienna on Thursday, 21 August 2008. A
green signal by the NSG is required for the deal to proceed to the US Congress for final ratification. As per reports, nuclear supplier nations at a
meeting on Thursday, 21 August 2008, proposed conditions for lifting a global ban on fuel and technology exports to India, a step required to
implement a US-India nuclear cooperation deal. A further rise in crude oil prices may act as a dampener for the stock markets