Market Outlook
The inflation data which touched the decade high rate of 12.01% and the decline in the crude oil price were the most remarkable events during the previous week. International crude price touched a 3 months low if US$114.62 on Friday.
Nifty opened the week at 4426, made a weekly high of 4615, and closed at 4529. Sensex opened at 14594 and fell to 14503. The index then recovered considerably and made a weekly high of 15422 and closed at 15167.
Technical Outlook :
As we have mentioned, the markets continued the recovery in the first half of the week, except Monday, and the indices found resistance at higher levels. The markets are expected to open slightly positive, following the global market situations and the decline in the crude oil price.
Technical outlook of the market is still suggesting a possible downside from higher levels.
NSE Nifty (Last Closing: 4529.50)
Nifty has continued the pullback during the first half of the week, however, some profit booking happened during the latter half. The index made a high of 4615, before closing at 4529.
The trend following indicators like MACD and RSI are still showing a bullishness in NSE Nifty indexes. RSI - 14 is currently trading near the overbought zone. However, the leading indicators are cautioning a possible reversal of the current upside. Stochastic Oscillator has indicated a bearish crossing, which supports a possible down side from around these levels.
Apart from this, the momentum indicators like RSI and Commodity Channel Index have recorded a Bearish divergence, which is an indication that a possible fall is imminent.
The Elliott wave analysis of the NSE Nifty is suggesting that 4640 can be expected to be the upper target for the current recovery rally. A fall is probable from these levels.
At current levels, 4440 will act as the first support for Nifty for the week, followed by 4300. Technically, market will slip into a selling mode, if fails to close above 4640 level, in which case, 4070 will act as the downside support for the coming week.
However, a close above the critical resistance of 4640 can be an indication of further upside. In such a scenario 4725 will be the weekly resistance for the index, followed by 4835.
Technically, Market is expected to open the week in a positive note, however, after the initial upside, selling can expect to emerge from upside.
Market Ahead:
The market will take cues from June 2008 industrial production figures that will be released on 12th August and SEBI decision of P-Notes.
Falling crude oil prices and improvement in south west monsoon will provide some relief to investors. Rising inflation remains a major worry for the markets in the medium term. The government will release June 2008 industrial production data at 12:00 IST on 12 August 2008.
Reserve Bank of India’s recipe to contain inflation by increasing the lending rates is expected to hurt industry, manufacturing sector and the overall growth momentum. Industrial production grew at the slowest pace in more than six years in May 2008, at 3.8%, as against 10.6% in the same month of 2007, with manufacturing showing signs of acute deceleration. Inflation remains a major concern for the central bank.
Inflation based on the wholesale price index rose 12.01% in 12 months to 26 July 2008, slightly above the previous week's annual rise of 11.98%, government data released on 7 August 2008 showed.
Industry outlook:
The 10th and 11th five-year plans are expected to allocate huge investment from both the public and private sectors on all the three segments such as Power generation, transmission and distribution. According to the Sixteenth Electric Power Survey published by the CEA, India's demand for electricity would increase to 975 billion units, which would require an additional generation capacity of 100,000 MW from the current levels to 212,000 MW by 2012. NTPC's projected capacity addition plan is 46000 MW while Reliance Infrastructure plans to increase its capacity to 20000MW by 2012.
The Government has continued with its policy of boosting the power sector with the announcement of two more Ultra Mega Power Projects and five other power projects in the last year Budget. In addition, there is a provision to set up merchant power plants through the participation of private developers in transmission projects.
Valuation & Recommendation:
SHEL stock is currently trading at Rs 202, 9.1xs of the trailing twelve months EPS of Rs 21.7, which seems cheaper than other players in this sector such as Jyoti Structure, Kalpataru Power Transmission and Alstom Project.
We are expecting Sunil Hitech Engineers to sustain the growth momentum backed by expansion of power generation capacities by most of the existing private and public sector undertakings and additions of captive power plants from various industries. The strong order book position of the company will give a clear visibility on its earnings in coming years. Thus we recommend the stock for a medium term investment perspective.
Saturday, August 9, 2008
Friday, August 1, 2008
01-08-2008 STOCKS TO WATCH
SRF: (132) Keep sl of 126 & grab at an opening bell. Huge up move to 160-166 on the card in hours only.
TECH MAH: (757) Buy. Expect 781-787 initially. Crossover above 787 expect 835 in hours only.
TISCO: (655) 663 a solid resistance & trend decider.
ABAN OFF: (2506) 2540 & 2578 solid resistances. Break below 2455 heavy selling will be seen.
SESAGOA: (3373) 3399 & 3420 a solid resistances. Break below 3332 heavy selling will be seen.
DLF: (509) Crossover above 518 huge fresh buying will be seen.
REL INFRA: (965) 997 & 951 crucial trend deciders.
ICICI Bank: (635) 648 a crucial resistance & trend decider.
HDFC: (2277) Break below 2238 unwinding will be seen.
SBI: (1415) 1386 a support to watch out for.
JINDAL STEEL: (2070) 1997 a crucial support & trend decider.
Recommended by
DHARMESH BHATT
The only name in 100% pure technical analysis.
Email: shivaam2003@yahoo.com
TECH MAH: (757) Buy. Expect 781-787 initially. Crossover above 787 expect 835 in hours only.
TISCO: (655) 663 a solid resistance & trend decider.
ABAN OFF: (2506) 2540 & 2578 solid resistances. Break below 2455 heavy selling will be seen.
SESAGOA: (3373) 3399 & 3420 a solid resistances. Break below 3332 heavy selling will be seen.
DLF: (509) Crossover above 518 huge fresh buying will be seen.
REL INFRA: (965) 997 & 951 crucial trend deciders.
ICICI Bank: (635) 648 a crucial resistance & trend decider.
HDFC: (2277) Break below 2238 unwinding will be seen.
SBI: (1415) 1386 a support to watch out for.
JINDAL STEEL: (2070) 1997 a crucial support & trend decider.
Recommended by
DHARMESH BHATT
The only name in 100% pure technical analysis.
Email: shivaam2003@yahoo.com
01-08-2008 Market Today
BSE index: (14355) Consider 14265 a crucial support, keep stop loss of 14153 to your buys.
Upward side it'll rush up to 14417 initially which is a nearest resistance to watch out for. Crossover above 14417 it'll spurt up heavily to 14580.
Downward side break below 14153 it'll turn bit weak & fall down to 14018 initially.
Break below 14018 it'll crash down to 13954 & 13825.
Nifty: (4333) Keep stop loss of 4285 to your buys.
Upward side it'll surge up further to 4368 initially. Crossover above 4368 it'll spurt up further to 4395 to 4416. Consider 4416 a solid resistance.
Crossover above 4416 only it'll move up further to 4465 & 4494.
Downward side break below 4285 it'll fall down to 4245 initially.
Break below 4245 it'll crash down to 4229 & 4194.
Upward side it'll rush up to 14417 initially which is a nearest resistance to watch out for. Crossover above 14417 it'll spurt up heavily to 14580.
Downward side break below 14153 it'll turn bit weak & fall down to 14018 initially.
Break below 14018 it'll crash down to 13954 & 13825.
Nifty: (4333) Keep stop loss of 4285 to your buys.
Upward side it'll surge up further to 4368 initially. Crossover above 4368 it'll spurt up further to 4395 to 4416. Consider 4416 a solid resistance.
Crossover above 4416 only it'll move up further to 4465 & 4494.
Downward side break below 4285 it'll fall down to 4245 initially.
Break below 4245 it'll crash down to 4229 & 4194.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
31-07-2008 Corporate Annoncements
31-07-2008 Corporate Annoncements
ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL), the overseas arm of state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), is believed to be close to make a $2.5 billion bid to takeover Russia-focused oil company Imperial Energy.Imperial Energy is an upstream oil and gas exploration and production company focused on the Commonwealth of Independent States, and has oil producing blocks in Tomsk region of western Siberia in Russia and Kastanai in north-central Kazakhstan.
ABB bags Rs 455-cr Vedanta order : ABB India has bagged an order worth Rs 455 crore for power, automation systems from Vedanta Aluminium Ltd for the expansion of their aluminium smelter plant at Jharsuguda in Orissa.ABB will design, supply, build and commission 24 sets of high power diode rectifier systems for four .
M&M drives away with Kinetic for Rs 110 crore: Mahindra & Mahindra signalled its entry into the two-wheeler segment by agreeing to buy the assets of Kinetic Motor Company for Rs 110 crore. M&M will buy the assets through a new company called Mahindra Kinetic Scooters and Motorcycles, which will own the assets of the Pune-based Kinetic Motor. M&M will own 80% of the new company.
Indiabulls Power Services to set up project in MP : Indiabulls Power Services, a subsidiary of Indiabulls Real Estate on Wednesday said it will set up a 2640 MW power project in Madhya Pradesh. The power project would be set up in two stages of 1,320 MW each. According to the MoU, the government would facilitate and extend "all reasonable help and assistance to IPSL for setting up the project.
Reliance refinery trial runs by Sept: Reliance Industries plans to test-run its new refinery by September and has already started filling its tanks with Saudi crude oil, a top company official said. additional Saudi crude would feed the new 580,000 barrels per day (bpd) refinery being built by subsidiary Reliance Petroleum adjacent to an existing 660,000-bpd plant at Jamnagar in western India.
CESC signs pact with Bihar Govt for 2,000 MW power plant: CESC Ltd has entered into a memorandum of understanding with the Government of Bihar to set up a 2,000-MW power plant in the State’s Bhagalpur district at an investment of Rs 10,000 crore, according to Mr Sanjiv Goenka, Vice-Chairman of the company. It would be set up in two phases under a 100 per cent subsidiary. In the first phase, a 660-MW plant would be set up at an investment of Rs 3,250 crore. In the second phase, two plants of 660-MW capacity each would be set up. The Union Ministry of Coal has been approached for facilitation of coal linkages or allotment of captive mines.
Britannia to invest Rs 100 cr in biscuit units: Britannia Industries Ltd will invest nearly Rs 100 crore at its biscuit manufacturing units across the country this year. The investment would be used for capacity expansion and procurement of new machinery at its existing plants.
Lupin acquires Hormosan of Germany: Lupin Ltd has acquired Germany’s Hormosan Pharma GmbH, a sales and marketing generics company that specialises in supplying Central Nervous System (CNS) medicines, at an undisclosed sum.
Discontinuation of F& O Contracts on the underlying Sun TV Limited (scrip code 532733): In accordance with the guidelines laid down by SEBI on the Eligibility Criteria for stocks, the underlying Sun TV Ltd has ceased to fulfill the eligibility requirement. In view of the above, derivatives contracts for the far month i.e. October 2008, will not be introduced on the underlying Sun TV Ltd. upon expiry of July 2008 contract i.e. on July 31, 2008. Also, no fresh contract month would be issued thereafter in respect of the above mentioned underlying.
ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL), the overseas arm of state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), is believed to be close to make a $2.5 billion bid to takeover Russia-focused oil company Imperial Energy.Imperial Energy is an upstream oil and gas exploration and production company focused on the Commonwealth of Independent States, and has oil producing blocks in Tomsk region of western Siberia in Russia and Kastanai in north-central Kazakhstan.
ABB bags Rs 455-cr Vedanta order : ABB India has bagged an order worth Rs 455 crore for power, automation systems from Vedanta Aluminium Ltd for the expansion of their aluminium smelter plant at Jharsuguda in Orissa.ABB will design, supply, build and commission 24 sets of high power diode rectifier systems for four .
M&M drives away with Kinetic for Rs 110 crore: Mahindra & Mahindra signalled its entry into the two-wheeler segment by agreeing to buy the assets of Kinetic Motor Company for Rs 110 crore. M&M will buy the assets through a new company called Mahindra Kinetic Scooters and Motorcycles, which will own the assets of the Pune-based Kinetic Motor. M&M will own 80% of the new company.
Indiabulls Power Services to set up project in MP : Indiabulls Power Services, a subsidiary of Indiabulls Real Estate on Wednesday said it will set up a 2640 MW power project in Madhya Pradesh. The power project would be set up in two stages of 1,320 MW each. According to the MoU, the government would facilitate and extend "all reasonable help and assistance to IPSL for setting up the project.
Reliance refinery trial runs by Sept: Reliance Industries plans to test-run its new refinery by September and has already started filling its tanks with Saudi crude oil, a top company official said. additional Saudi crude would feed the new 580,000 barrels per day (bpd) refinery being built by subsidiary Reliance Petroleum adjacent to an existing 660,000-bpd plant at Jamnagar in western India.
CESC signs pact with Bihar Govt for 2,000 MW power plant: CESC Ltd has entered into a memorandum of understanding with the Government of Bihar to set up a 2,000-MW power plant in the State’s Bhagalpur district at an investment of Rs 10,000 crore, according to Mr Sanjiv Goenka, Vice-Chairman of the company. It would be set up in two phases under a 100 per cent subsidiary. In the first phase, a 660-MW plant would be set up at an investment of Rs 3,250 crore. In the second phase, two plants of 660-MW capacity each would be set up. The Union Ministry of Coal has been approached for facilitation of coal linkages or allotment of captive mines.
Britannia to invest Rs 100 cr in biscuit units: Britannia Industries Ltd will invest nearly Rs 100 crore at its biscuit manufacturing units across the country this year. The investment would be used for capacity expansion and procurement of new machinery at its existing plants.
Lupin acquires Hormosan of Germany: Lupin Ltd has acquired Germany’s Hormosan Pharma GmbH, a sales and marketing generics company that specialises in supplying Central Nervous System (CNS) medicines, at an undisclosed sum.
Discontinuation of F& O Contracts on the underlying Sun TV Limited (scrip code 532733): In accordance with the guidelines laid down by SEBI on the Eligibility Criteria for stocks, the underlying Sun TV Ltd has ceased to fulfill the eligibility requirement. In view of the above, derivatives contracts for the far month i.e. October 2008, will not be introduced on the underlying Sun TV Ltd. upon expiry of July 2008 contract i.e. on July 31, 2008. Also, no fresh contract month would be issued thereafter in respect of the above mentioned underlying.
31-07-2008 Market Today
SENSEX (Close- 14287.21)
We have seen a strong rebound after credit policy shock. Better part of last trading session that it has moved above 14000 marks only. I have already talked about the move towards 14500 in recovery. For medium term Sensex will trade in a range only. It would not be directive call of up or down. Stock specific action is expected. Till now buying was focused on key blue-chip stocks. Technically there are few stocks which are ready for a moderate up side. I am not betting anything on mid cap stocks as it will be too early to take any call on this pack. Caution required if you are buying mid cap stocks.
Support - 14189/14065/13940
Resistance - 14480/14650/14800
NIFTY (Close- 4313.55)
Nifty has closed above crucial level of 4300. Technical levels suggests that it should take a move towards 4400+ levels. Most crucial levels to watch for is still too far i.e. 4500 marks. Its too early to say about stability but let us see.
Support - 4280/4238/4180
Resistance - 4345/4378/4409
We have seen a strong rebound after credit policy shock. Better part of last trading session that it has moved above 14000 marks only. I have already talked about the move towards 14500 in recovery. For medium term Sensex will trade in a range only. It would not be directive call of up or down. Stock specific action is expected. Till now buying was focused on key blue-chip stocks. Technically there are few stocks which are ready for a moderate up side. I am not betting anything on mid cap stocks as it will be too early to take any call on this pack. Caution required if you are buying mid cap stocks.
Support - 14189/14065/13940
Resistance - 14480/14650/14800
NIFTY (Close- 4313.55)
Nifty has closed above crucial level of 4300. Technical levels suggests that it should take a move towards 4400+ levels. Most crucial levels to watch for is still too far i.e. 4500 marks. Its too early to say about stability but let us see.
Support - 4280/4238/4180
Resistance - 4345/4378/4409
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