4647 & 15555 crucial hurdles to watch out for.
Stock specific approach advisable.
BSE index: (15504) Watch out for crucial hurdle at 15555. Crossover above 15555 it'll sustain on higher levels & spurt up heavily to 15848 & 15905. Book profit at around 15905.
Downward side 15444 a crucial support, keep stop loss of 15368 to your buys.
Break below 15368 it'll turn weak & fall down to 15280, 15204 & 15121.
Nifty: (4621) Watch out for most crucial hurdle at 4648 crossover above which only it'll sustain on higher levels & spurt up to 4761, 4773 & 4803.
Keep stop loss of 4580 to your buys.
Break below it'll turn weak & fall down to 4544, 4500 & 4464.
RIL: (2326) 2357 a hurdle & trend decider.
REL INFRA: (1102) Looks good only. Buy. Crossover above 1114 it'll spurt up further.
SBI: (1592) Crossover above 1599 it'll surge up further. 1710 a laxmanrekha in any case.
HDFC Bank: (1309) 1338 a solid resistance & trend decider.
ICICI Bank: (771) Looks good. Crossover above 779 it'll spurt up further.
KOTAK Bank: (661) 680 a hurdle & trend decider.
HCC: (109) Looks good. Expect 115 on higher levels.
JP ASSO: (197.50) Looks good. 206 a minor hurdle to watch out for.
L&T: (2890) Looks good. Crossover above 2899 expect 3009.
BHEL: (1826) Keep stop loss of 1790 to your buys.
TECH MAH: (801) Looks fantastic only.
PTC INDIA: (88) Buy short term delivery keeping stop loss of 80.
All set to shoot up to 110 & 130 in very short span of time.
Both in NSE & BSE: 532524.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Monday, August 11, 2008
Weekly Trading Highlights. August 11, 2008
Expect initial up surges to 15526 & 4640.
A close above 15526 & 4640 real further up move will be seen.
BSE index: (15167) Consider for this week...15058 a nearest & 14888 a solid support; keep stop loss of 14888 to your buys.
Upward side 15301 a nearest hurdle crossover above which it'll surge up to 15423 & 15526 initially. Consider 15526 a solid resistance.
A close above 15526 it'll sustain on higher levels & shoot up to 15848 & 16195. Book profit around 16195.
Downward side break below 14888 it'll turn bit weak & fall down to 14726 & 14688. Consider 14688 a most crucial support.
A close below 14688 it'll turn very weak & fall down to 14369, 14162 & 13727. ]
Nifty: (4530) Consider for this week...4505 a nearest & 4464 a crucial support; keep stop loss of 4464 to your buys.
Upward side 4580 a nearest hurdle crossover above which it'll surge up to 4640 initially which is a most crucial hurdle to watch out for.
A close above 4640 it'll sustain on higher levels & shoot up to 4760 & 4802. Consider 4802 a crucial resistance where profit booking not ruled out.
A close above 4802 it'll turn total bullish & shoot up to 4958 & 5003.
Downward side break below 4464 it'll turn bit weak & fall down to 4436, 4413 & there after to 4370 & 4312.
A close above 15526 & 4640 real further up move will be seen.
BSE index: (15167) Consider for this week...15058 a nearest & 14888 a solid support; keep stop loss of 14888 to your buys.
Upward side 15301 a nearest hurdle crossover above which it'll surge up to 15423 & 15526 initially. Consider 15526 a solid resistance.
A close above 15526 it'll sustain on higher levels & shoot up to 15848 & 16195. Book profit around 16195.
Downward side break below 14888 it'll turn bit weak & fall down to 14726 & 14688. Consider 14688 a most crucial support.
A close below 14688 it'll turn very weak & fall down to 14369, 14162 & 13727. ]
Nifty: (4530) Consider for this week...4505 a nearest & 4464 a crucial support; keep stop loss of 4464 to your buys.
Upward side 4580 a nearest hurdle crossover above which it'll surge up to 4640 initially which is a most crucial hurdle to watch out for.
A close above 4640 it'll sustain on higher levels & shoot up to 4760 & 4802. Consider 4802 a crucial resistance where profit booking not ruled out.
A close above 4802 it'll turn total bullish & shoot up to 4958 & 5003.
Downward side break below 4464 it'll turn bit weak & fall down to 4436, 4413 & there after to 4370 & 4312.
Saturday, August 9, 2008
Weekly Report August 09
Market Outlook
The inflation data which touched the decade high rate of 12.01% and the decline in the crude oil price were the most remarkable events during the previous week. International crude price touched a 3 months low if US$114.62 on Friday.
Nifty opened the week at 4426, made a weekly high of 4615, and closed at 4529. Sensex opened at 14594 and fell to 14503. The index then recovered considerably and made a weekly high of 15422 and closed at 15167.
Technical Outlook :
As we have mentioned, the markets continued the recovery in the first half of the week, except Monday, and the indices found resistance at higher levels. The markets are expected to open slightly positive, following the global market situations and the decline in the crude oil price.
Technical outlook of the market is still suggesting a possible downside from higher levels.
NSE Nifty (Last Closing: 4529.50)
Nifty has continued the pullback during the first half of the week, however, some profit booking happened during the latter half. The index made a high of 4615, before closing at 4529.
The trend following indicators like MACD and RSI are still showing a bullishness in NSE Nifty indexes. RSI - 14 is currently trading near the overbought zone. However, the leading indicators are cautioning a possible reversal of the current upside. Stochastic Oscillator has indicated a bearish crossing, which supports a possible down side from around these levels.
Apart from this, the momentum indicators like RSI and Commodity Channel Index have recorded a Bearish divergence, which is an indication that a possible fall is imminent.
The Elliott wave analysis of the NSE Nifty is suggesting that 4640 can be expected to be the upper target for the current recovery rally. A fall is probable from these levels.
At current levels, 4440 will act as the first support for Nifty for the week, followed by 4300. Technically, market will slip into a selling mode, if fails to close above 4640 level, in which case, 4070 will act as the downside support for the coming week.
However, a close above the critical resistance of 4640 can be an indication of further upside. In such a scenario 4725 will be the weekly resistance for the index, followed by 4835.
Technically, Market is expected to open the week in a positive note, however, after the initial upside, selling can expect to emerge from upside.
Market Ahead:
The market will take cues from June 2008 industrial production figures that will be released on 12th August and SEBI decision of P-Notes.
Falling crude oil prices and improvement in south west monsoon will provide some relief to investors. Rising inflation remains a major worry for the markets in the medium term. The government will release June 2008 industrial production data at 12:00 IST on 12 August 2008.
Reserve Bank of India’s recipe to contain inflation by increasing the lending rates is expected to hurt industry, manufacturing sector and the overall growth momentum. Industrial production grew at the slowest pace in more than six years in May 2008, at 3.8%, as against 10.6% in the same month of 2007, with manufacturing showing signs of acute deceleration. Inflation remains a major concern for the central bank.
Inflation based on the wholesale price index rose 12.01% in 12 months to 26 July 2008, slightly above the previous week's annual rise of 11.98%, government data released on 7 August 2008 showed.
Industry outlook:
The 10th and 11th five-year plans are expected to allocate huge investment from both the public and private sectors on all the three segments such as Power generation, transmission and distribution. According to the Sixteenth Electric Power Survey published by the CEA, India's demand for electricity would increase to 975 billion units, which would require an additional generation capacity of 100,000 MW from the current levels to 212,000 MW by 2012. NTPC's projected capacity addition plan is 46000 MW while Reliance Infrastructure plans to increase its capacity to 20000MW by 2012.
The Government has continued with its policy of boosting the power sector with the announcement of two more Ultra Mega Power Projects and five other power projects in the last year Budget. In addition, there is a provision to set up merchant power plants through the participation of private developers in transmission projects.
Valuation & Recommendation:
SHEL stock is currently trading at Rs 202, 9.1xs of the trailing twelve months EPS of Rs 21.7, which seems cheaper than other players in this sector such as Jyoti Structure, Kalpataru Power Transmission and Alstom Project.
We are expecting Sunil Hitech Engineers to sustain the growth momentum backed by expansion of power generation capacities by most of the existing private and public sector undertakings and additions of captive power plants from various industries. The strong order book position of the company will give a clear visibility on its earnings in coming years. Thus we recommend the stock for a medium term investment perspective.
The inflation data which touched the decade high rate of 12.01% and the decline in the crude oil price were the most remarkable events during the previous week. International crude price touched a 3 months low if US$114.62 on Friday.
Nifty opened the week at 4426, made a weekly high of 4615, and closed at 4529. Sensex opened at 14594 and fell to 14503. The index then recovered considerably and made a weekly high of 15422 and closed at 15167.
Technical Outlook :
As we have mentioned, the markets continued the recovery in the first half of the week, except Monday, and the indices found resistance at higher levels. The markets are expected to open slightly positive, following the global market situations and the decline in the crude oil price.
Technical outlook of the market is still suggesting a possible downside from higher levels.
NSE Nifty (Last Closing: 4529.50)
Nifty has continued the pullback during the first half of the week, however, some profit booking happened during the latter half. The index made a high of 4615, before closing at 4529.
The trend following indicators like MACD and RSI are still showing a bullishness in NSE Nifty indexes. RSI - 14 is currently trading near the overbought zone. However, the leading indicators are cautioning a possible reversal of the current upside. Stochastic Oscillator has indicated a bearish crossing, which supports a possible down side from around these levels.
Apart from this, the momentum indicators like RSI and Commodity Channel Index have recorded a Bearish divergence, which is an indication that a possible fall is imminent.
The Elliott wave analysis of the NSE Nifty is suggesting that 4640 can be expected to be the upper target for the current recovery rally. A fall is probable from these levels.
At current levels, 4440 will act as the first support for Nifty for the week, followed by 4300. Technically, market will slip into a selling mode, if fails to close above 4640 level, in which case, 4070 will act as the downside support for the coming week.
However, a close above the critical resistance of 4640 can be an indication of further upside. In such a scenario 4725 will be the weekly resistance for the index, followed by 4835.
Technically, Market is expected to open the week in a positive note, however, after the initial upside, selling can expect to emerge from upside.
Market Ahead:
The market will take cues from June 2008 industrial production figures that will be released on 12th August and SEBI decision of P-Notes.
Falling crude oil prices and improvement in south west monsoon will provide some relief to investors. Rising inflation remains a major worry for the markets in the medium term. The government will release June 2008 industrial production data at 12:00 IST on 12 August 2008.
Reserve Bank of India’s recipe to contain inflation by increasing the lending rates is expected to hurt industry, manufacturing sector and the overall growth momentum. Industrial production grew at the slowest pace in more than six years in May 2008, at 3.8%, as against 10.6% in the same month of 2007, with manufacturing showing signs of acute deceleration. Inflation remains a major concern for the central bank.
Inflation based on the wholesale price index rose 12.01% in 12 months to 26 July 2008, slightly above the previous week's annual rise of 11.98%, government data released on 7 August 2008 showed.
Industry outlook:
The 10th and 11th five-year plans are expected to allocate huge investment from both the public and private sectors on all the three segments such as Power generation, transmission and distribution. According to the Sixteenth Electric Power Survey published by the CEA, India's demand for electricity would increase to 975 billion units, which would require an additional generation capacity of 100,000 MW from the current levels to 212,000 MW by 2012. NTPC's projected capacity addition plan is 46000 MW while Reliance Infrastructure plans to increase its capacity to 20000MW by 2012.
The Government has continued with its policy of boosting the power sector with the announcement of two more Ultra Mega Power Projects and five other power projects in the last year Budget. In addition, there is a provision to set up merchant power plants through the participation of private developers in transmission projects.
Valuation & Recommendation:
SHEL stock is currently trading at Rs 202, 9.1xs of the trailing twelve months EPS of Rs 21.7, which seems cheaper than other players in this sector such as Jyoti Structure, Kalpataru Power Transmission and Alstom Project.
We are expecting Sunil Hitech Engineers to sustain the growth momentum backed by expansion of power generation capacities by most of the existing private and public sector undertakings and additions of captive power plants from various industries. The strong order book position of the company will give a clear visibility on its earnings in coming years. Thus we recommend the stock for a medium term investment perspective.
Friday, August 1, 2008
01-08-2008 STOCKS TO WATCH
SRF: (132) Keep sl of 126 & grab at an opening bell. Huge up move to 160-166 on the card in hours only.
TECH MAH: (757) Buy. Expect 781-787 initially. Crossover above 787 expect 835 in hours only.
TISCO: (655) 663 a solid resistance & trend decider.
ABAN OFF: (2506) 2540 & 2578 solid resistances. Break below 2455 heavy selling will be seen.
SESAGOA: (3373) 3399 & 3420 a solid resistances. Break below 3332 heavy selling will be seen.
DLF: (509) Crossover above 518 huge fresh buying will be seen.
REL INFRA: (965) 997 & 951 crucial trend deciders.
ICICI Bank: (635) 648 a crucial resistance & trend decider.
HDFC: (2277) Break below 2238 unwinding will be seen.
SBI: (1415) 1386 a support to watch out for.
JINDAL STEEL: (2070) 1997 a crucial support & trend decider.
Recommended by
DHARMESH BHATT
The only name in 100% pure technical analysis.
Email: shivaam2003@yahoo.com
TECH MAH: (757) Buy. Expect 781-787 initially. Crossover above 787 expect 835 in hours only.
TISCO: (655) 663 a solid resistance & trend decider.
ABAN OFF: (2506) 2540 & 2578 solid resistances. Break below 2455 heavy selling will be seen.
SESAGOA: (3373) 3399 & 3420 a solid resistances. Break below 3332 heavy selling will be seen.
DLF: (509) Crossover above 518 huge fresh buying will be seen.
REL INFRA: (965) 997 & 951 crucial trend deciders.
ICICI Bank: (635) 648 a crucial resistance & trend decider.
HDFC: (2277) Break below 2238 unwinding will be seen.
SBI: (1415) 1386 a support to watch out for.
JINDAL STEEL: (2070) 1997 a crucial support & trend decider.
Recommended by
DHARMESH BHATT
The only name in 100% pure technical analysis.
Email: shivaam2003@yahoo.com
01-08-2008 Market Today
BSE index: (14355) Consider 14265 a crucial support, keep stop loss of 14153 to your buys.
Upward side it'll rush up to 14417 initially which is a nearest resistance to watch out for. Crossover above 14417 it'll spurt up heavily to 14580.
Downward side break below 14153 it'll turn bit weak & fall down to 14018 initially.
Break below 14018 it'll crash down to 13954 & 13825.
Nifty: (4333) Keep stop loss of 4285 to your buys.
Upward side it'll surge up further to 4368 initially. Crossover above 4368 it'll spurt up further to 4395 to 4416. Consider 4416 a solid resistance.
Crossover above 4416 only it'll move up further to 4465 & 4494.
Downward side break below 4285 it'll fall down to 4245 initially.
Break below 4245 it'll crash down to 4229 & 4194.
Upward side it'll rush up to 14417 initially which is a nearest resistance to watch out for. Crossover above 14417 it'll spurt up heavily to 14580.
Downward side break below 14153 it'll turn bit weak & fall down to 14018 initially.
Break below 14018 it'll crash down to 13954 & 13825.
Nifty: (4333) Keep stop loss of 4285 to your buys.
Upward side it'll surge up further to 4368 initially. Crossover above 4368 it'll spurt up further to 4395 to 4416. Consider 4416 a solid resistance.
Crossover above 4416 only it'll move up further to 4465 & 4494.
Downward side break below 4285 it'll fall down to 4245 initially.
Break below 4245 it'll crash down to 4229 & 4194.
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