global markets 17th Oct. 2008
Wall Street rallied finding momentum toward the end of a volatile session, as the lowest oil prices in more than a year gave investors a reason to scoop up shares battered in the recent market selloff.The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) surged 401 points. The Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index rose 4.3% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 5.5%. Crude oil is at $72 a barrel and Gold is at $804 an ounce. European stocks ended steeply lower with banks leading the decline as global equities slid on investors' fears of a global recession, and oil shares tracked tumbling crude. Across Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 dropped 5.7 percent, Germany's DAX lost 4.9 percent and France's CAC shed 5.9 percent. Asian stocks rose on signs governments are succeeding in efforts to unlock credit markets. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up by 1.5% and China’s SSE Composite is in the green by 0.1% but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is in the red by 0.83%. Data about housing permits is expected from US today.
MARKET OUTLOOK
Stock markets have staged a strong comeback on lower crude oil prices and cooling inflation across the globe which will boost the purchasing power of consumers. Asian markets have rose on easing rates in money markets which has led to the expectation that the credit markets are on their way back to normalcy. The same is true of India as Call rates in India have fallen to 6.75% from a peak of nearly 23% last week. This is after RBI's injection of Rs.1,45,000 crore into the system through various measures. Inflation, another achilles heel of Indian economy is at 11.44% and this is the third consecutive weekly decline. All these should cause positive gap up opening in India. When global news flow subsides there will be more focus on domestic news and we are going to watch new political dramas from here onwards. For Sensex, Critical level is 10645 and above this the Resistance comes around at 10840.Only above this level market may show strength. Nifty has to cross 3335 for the momentum. Below 3195 the Nifty trend may reverse.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Nifty & Sensex Today 17th October 2008.
17th October 2008.
Watch out for crucial hurdles at 11055 & 3441-3473 in further up surges.
Total stock specific approach advisable.
BSE index: (10581) Consider 10402 a crucial support, keep stop loss of 10290 to your buys.
Upward side crossover above 10788 it'll surge up further to 11055 which is a most crucial resistance where again selling pressure will be seen. Crossover above 11055 it'll surge up further to 11263-11287 & 11525, selling again on higher levels will be seen.
Downward side break below 10290 fresh selling will drag it down to 11150 & 10006.
Break below 10006 sudden panic will drag it down to 9800-9700.
Nifty Future: (3300) Consider 3230 a crucial support, keep stop loss of 3180 to your buys.
Upward side 3368 a crucial hurdle crossover above it'll surge up to 3442 & 3473. Consider 3442-3473 solid resistance area from where again selling pressure will be seen.
Crossover above 3473 it'll surge up further to 3518-3532 & 3615; selling on higher levels will be seen.
Downward side break below 3180 it'll turn very weak again & fall down to 3133 & 3059.
Break below 3059 some heavy panic will be seen.
Watch out for crucial hurdles at 11055 & 3441-3473 in further up surges.
Total stock specific approach advisable.
BSE index: (10581) Consider 10402 a crucial support, keep stop loss of 10290 to your buys.
Upward side crossover above 10788 it'll surge up further to 11055 which is a most crucial resistance where again selling pressure will be seen. Crossover above 11055 it'll surge up further to 11263-11287 & 11525, selling again on higher levels will be seen.
Downward side break below 10290 fresh selling will drag it down to 11150 & 10006.
Break below 10006 sudden panic will drag it down to 9800-9700.
Nifty Future: (3300) Consider 3230 a crucial support, keep stop loss of 3180 to your buys.
Upward side 3368 a crucial hurdle crossover above it'll surge up to 3442 & 3473. Consider 3442-3473 solid resistance area from where again selling pressure will be seen.
Crossover above 3473 it'll surge up further to 3518-3532 & 3615; selling on higher levels will be seen.
Downward side break below 3180 it'll turn very weak again & fall down to 3133 & 3059.
Break below 3059 some heavy panic will be seen.
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Nifty Sensex Week Ahead
Week Ahead :
With the US, followed by the European economies, slipping into the recession fears, the global financial are expected to experience the heat in
the coming week also. The domestic inflation data which came at 11.99%, after sustaining above the 12% mark for a series of 3 consecutive
months, will possibly will be overlooked by the market.
The markets are expected to open the week in a negative note. However, slight recovery may be expected towards the later half of the coming
week.
With the US, followed by the European economies, slipping into the recession fears, the global financial are expected to experience the heat in
the coming week also. The domestic inflation data which came at 11.99%, after sustaining above the 12% mark for a series of 3 consecutive
months, will possibly will be overlooked by the market.
The markets are expected to open the week in a negative note. However, slight recovery may be expected towards the later half of the coming
week.
The week that went by
The week that went by
The most remarkable event which the Indian markets witnessed during the week that went by was the US’ sanctioning the Indo-US nuke deal.
However, this was not sufficient enough to overcome bearish sentiment caused by the global economic turmoil. NSE Nifty shed 167 points
(4%) and closed at 3818. BSE Sensex closed at 12526, losing 576 points or 4.4% from the previous week’s closing.
The global markets remained jittery following the uncertainties on the US government’s $700 Billion bailout plan to rescue the suffering
financial system. apart from this, the US government announced an additional package of Tax cut and raised the insurance coverage on
deposits. The US treasury will buy the illiquid assets held by the financial institutions. However, despite of sanctioning the bailout plan and the
other policy changes, the US markets and the other global markets continued the weakness, on fears that the $700 billion is not sufficient
enough to avoid a recession. The economic numbers released are still coming worse, which are indicating towards a possible recession.
Technical Outlook :
Bearishness is persisting in the market. The NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex failed to sustain above higher levels. During the last week, the indices
revised the 52 weeks low. Nifty recorded an intra-day low of 3715 and Sensex fell to 12153, before recovering slightly.
The weakness is expected to continue in the coming week also.
The Technical indicators are trading negative. MACD is still indicating continuance of weakness, while RSI is moving towards the oversold
zone. The bullish crossing of the Stochastic Oscillators in the daily chart, can be an indication for a possible pullback in the near future, But the
fact that in the Monthly chart, this indicator has again turned into Selling mode, after a bullish crossing, is adding to the concerns for Bulls.
At current levels, 3675 is the first crucial support for NSE Nifty. A failure to sustain above this can target the index towards 3400
levels in the coming weeks, with major support at 3515. The first resistance for the coming week is expected to come at 3930. The
index will find it very difficult to cross the Second resistance of 4080.
The most remarkable event which the Indian markets witnessed during the week that went by was the US’ sanctioning the Indo-US nuke deal.
However, this was not sufficient enough to overcome bearish sentiment caused by the global economic turmoil. NSE Nifty shed 167 points
(4%) and closed at 3818. BSE Sensex closed at 12526, losing 576 points or 4.4% from the previous week’s closing.
The global markets remained jittery following the uncertainties on the US government’s $700 Billion bailout plan to rescue the suffering
financial system. apart from this, the US government announced an additional package of Tax cut and raised the insurance coverage on
deposits. The US treasury will buy the illiquid assets held by the financial institutions. However, despite of sanctioning the bailout plan and the
other policy changes, the US markets and the other global markets continued the weakness, on fears that the $700 billion is not sufficient
enough to avoid a recession. The economic numbers released are still coming worse, which are indicating towards a possible recession.
Technical Outlook :
Bearishness is persisting in the market. The NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex failed to sustain above higher levels. During the last week, the indices
revised the 52 weeks low. Nifty recorded an intra-day low of 3715 and Sensex fell to 12153, before recovering slightly.
The weakness is expected to continue in the coming week also.
The Technical indicators are trading negative. MACD is still indicating continuance of weakness, while RSI is moving towards the oversold
zone. The bullish crossing of the Stochastic Oscillators in the daily chart, can be an indication for a possible pullback in the near future, But the
fact that in the Monthly chart, this indicator has again turned into Selling mode, after a bullish crossing, is adding to the concerns for Bulls.
At current levels, 3675 is the first crucial support for NSE Nifty. A failure to sustain above this can target the index towards 3400
levels in the coming weeks, with major support at 3515. The first resistance for the coming week is expected to come at 3930. The
index will find it very difficult to cross the Second resistance of 4080.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Weekly Trading Highlights.
SENSEX & NIFTY now at their long term major supports.
Be extreme cautious in any fresh shorts in panic.
BSE index: (13102) Consider for this week...13020 a nearest support break below which it'll fall down further to 12945, 12866 & 12767 initially which are crucial supports. Break below 12767 sudden panic will drag it down to 12563 which is a most crucial support; buy on declines keeping stop loss of 12425.
Upward side 13390 a crucial resistance closing above which it'll turn bit positive & surge up to 13854. A close above 13854 it'll strengthen further & move up to 14221. A close above 14221 it'll turn total positive & spurt up to 15250.
Downward side a close below 12425 it'll turn very weak & fall down to 11900 & 11450. Consider 11900 to 11450 major long term supports in any panic.
* For investors buying at around 12500-12000 keeping stop loss of 11450 seems best risk reward ratio.
Nifty: (3985) Consider for this week...Expect it to fall down further to 3947, 3919 & 3866. Buy on declines keeping stop loss of 3799.
Upward side 4052 a nearest crucial resistance closing above which it'll turn bit positive & spurt up to 4199 initially. A close above 4199 it'll strengthen further & move up to 4303-4329.
A close above 4329 it'll turn total positive & shoot up to 4614 in coming days.
Downward side break below 3799 it'll turn very weak & fall down further to 3753 & 3702 initially.
A close below 3702 it'll crash down to 3477.
STOCKS TO WATCH
RELIANCE: (1961) 1945 & 1877 crucial support & trend decider. 2073 7 2127 crucial resistance & trend decider.
REL CAP: (1172) 1146-1135 & 1084 crucial supports to watch out for in further panic.
REL INFRA: (850) 820 & 802 crucial support & trend decider.
SBI: (1434) Looks weak. Break below 1422 expect further fall. 1350-1322 crucial support area to watch out for on extreme lower levels.
BOI, PNB & BOB: Looks weak.
ICICI Bank: (561) Looks bit weak. 518 a crucial support & trend decider.
AXIS Bank: (705) 702 & 725 crucial trend deciders.
KOTAK Bank: (569) Looks weak. Watch out for crucial support at 520-510 on extreme lower levels.
DLF: (370) Break below 365 expect 345 which is a major support to watch out for in extreme panic.
L&T: (2468) 2455 & 2402 crucial supports to watch out for in panic.
Email: shivaam2003@yahoo.com
Be extreme cautious in any fresh shorts in panic.
BSE index: (13102) Consider for this week...13020 a nearest support break below which it'll fall down further to 12945, 12866 & 12767 initially which are crucial supports. Break below 12767 sudden panic will drag it down to 12563 which is a most crucial support; buy on declines keeping stop loss of 12425.
Upward side 13390 a crucial resistance closing above which it'll turn bit positive & surge up to 13854. A close above 13854 it'll strengthen further & move up to 14221. A close above 14221 it'll turn total positive & spurt up to 15250.
Downward side a close below 12425 it'll turn very weak & fall down to 11900 & 11450. Consider 11900 to 11450 major long term supports in any panic.
* For investors buying at around 12500-12000 keeping stop loss of 11450 seems best risk reward ratio.
Nifty: (3985) Consider for this week...Expect it to fall down further to 3947, 3919 & 3866. Buy on declines keeping stop loss of 3799.
Upward side 4052 a nearest crucial resistance closing above which it'll turn bit positive & spurt up to 4199 initially. A close above 4199 it'll strengthen further & move up to 4303-4329.
A close above 4329 it'll turn total positive & shoot up to 4614 in coming days.
Downward side break below 3799 it'll turn very weak & fall down further to 3753 & 3702 initially.
A close below 3702 it'll crash down to 3477.
STOCKS TO WATCH
RELIANCE: (1961) 1945 & 1877 crucial support & trend decider. 2073 7 2127 crucial resistance & trend decider.
REL CAP: (1172) 1146-1135 & 1084 crucial supports to watch out for in further panic.
REL INFRA: (850) 820 & 802 crucial support & trend decider.
SBI: (1434) Looks weak. Break below 1422 expect further fall. 1350-1322 crucial support area to watch out for on extreme lower levels.
BOI, PNB & BOB: Looks weak.
ICICI Bank: (561) Looks bit weak. 518 a crucial support & trend decider.
AXIS Bank: (705) 702 & 725 crucial trend deciders.
KOTAK Bank: (569) Looks weak. Watch out for crucial support at 520-510 on extreme lower levels.
DLF: (370) Break below 365 expect 345 which is a major support to watch out for in extreme panic.
L&T: (2468) 2455 & 2402 crucial supports to watch out for in panic.
Email: shivaam2003@yahoo.com
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