Week Ahead :
With the US, followed by the European economies, slipping into the recession fears, the global financial are expected to experience the heat in
the coming week also. The domestic inflation data which came at 11.99%, after sustaining above the 12% mark for a series of 3 consecutive
months, will possibly will be overlooked by the market.
The markets are expected to open the week in a negative note. However, slight recovery may be expected towards the later half of the coming
week.
Saturday, October 4, 2008
The week that went by
The week that went by
The most remarkable event which the Indian markets witnessed during the week that went by was the US’ sanctioning the Indo-US nuke deal.
However, this was not sufficient enough to overcome bearish sentiment caused by the global economic turmoil. NSE Nifty shed 167 points
(4%) and closed at 3818. BSE Sensex closed at 12526, losing 576 points or 4.4% from the previous week’s closing.
The global markets remained jittery following the uncertainties on the US government’s $700 Billion bailout plan to rescue the suffering
financial system. apart from this, the US government announced an additional package of Tax cut and raised the insurance coverage on
deposits. The US treasury will buy the illiquid assets held by the financial institutions. However, despite of sanctioning the bailout plan and the
other policy changes, the US markets and the other global markets continued the weakness, on fears that the $700 billion is not sufficient
enough to avoid a recession. The economic numbers released are still coming worse, which are indicating towards a possible recession.
Technical Outlook :
Bearishness is persisting in the market. The NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex failed to sustain above higher levels. During the last week, the indices
revised the 52 weeks low. Nifty recorded an intra-day low of 3715 and Sensex fell to 12153, before recovering slightly.
The weakness is expected to continue in the coming week also.
The Technical indicators are trading negative. MACD is still indicating continuance of weakness, while RSI is moving towards the oversold
zone. The bullish crossing of the Stochastic Oscillators in the daily chart, can be an indication for a possible pullback in the near future, But the
fact that in the Monthly chart, this indicator has again turned into Selling mode, after a bullish crossing, is adding to the concerns for Bulls.
At current levels, 3675 is the first crucial support for NSE Nifty. A failure to sustain above this can target the index towards 3400
levels in the coming weeks, with major support at 3515. The first resistance for the coming week is expected to come at 3930. The
index will find it very difficult to cross the Second resistance of 4080.
The most remarkable event which the Indian markets witnessed during the week that went by was the US’ sanctioning the Indo-US nuke deal.
However, this was not sufficient enough to overcome bearish sentiment caused by the global economic turmoil. NSE Nifty shed 167 points
(4%) and closed at 3818. BSE Sensex closed at 12526, losing 576 points or 4.4% from the previous week’s closing.
The global markets remained jittery following the uncertainties on the US government’s $700 Billion bailout plan to rescue the suffering
financial system. apart from this, the US government announced an additional package of Tax cut and raised the insurance coverage on
deposits. The US treasury will buy the illiquid assets held by the financial institutions. However, despite of sanctioning the bailout plan and the
other policy changes, the US markets and the other global markets continued the weakness, on fears that the $700 billion is not sufficient
enough to avoid a recession. The economic numbers released are still coming worse, which are indicating towards a possible recession.
Technical Outlook :
Bearishness is persisting in the market. The NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex failed to sustain above higher levels. During the last week, the indices
revised the 52 weeks low. Nifty recorded an intra-day low of 3715 and Sensex fell to 12153, before recovering slightly.
The weakness is expected to continue in the coming week also.
The Technical indicators are trading negative. MACD is still indicating continuance of weakness, while RSI is moving towards the oversold
zone. The bullish crossing of the Stochastic Oscillators in the daily chart, can be an indication for a possible pullback in the near future, But the
fact that in the Monthly chart, this indicator has again turned into Selling mode, after a bullish crossing, is adding to the concerns for Bulls.
At current levels, 3675 is the first crucial support for NSE Nifty. A failure to sustain above this can target the index towards 3400
levels in the coming weeks, with major support at 3515. The first resistance for the coming week is expected to come at 3930. The
index will find it very difficult to cross the Second resistance of 4080.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Weekly Trading Highlights.
SENSEX & NIFTY now at their long term major supports.
Be extreme cautious in any fresh shorts in panic.
BSE index: (13102) Consider for this week...13020 a nearest support break below which it'll fall down further to 12945, 12866 & 12767 initially which are crucial supports. Break below 12767 sudden panic will drag it down to 12563 which is a most crucial support; buy on declines keeping stop loss of 12425.
Upward side 13390 a crucial resistance closing above which it'll turn bit positive & surge up to 13854. A close above 13854 it'll strengthen further & move up to 14221. A close above 14221 it'll turn total positive & spurt up to 15250.
Downward side a close below 12425 it'll turn very weak & fall down to 11900 & 11450. Consider 11900 to 11450 major long term supports in any panic.
* For investors buying at around 12500-12000 keeping stop loss of 11450 seems best risk reward ratio.
Nifty: (3985) Consider for this week...Expect it to fall down further to 3947, 3919 & 3866. Buy on declines keeping stop loss of 3799.
Upward side 4052 a nearest crucial resistance closing above which it'll turn bit positive & spurt up to 4199 initially. A close above 4199 it'll strengthen further & move up to 4303-4329.
A close above 4329 it'll turn total positive & shoot up to 4614 in coming days.
Downward side break below 3799 it'll turn very weak & fall down further to 3753 & 3702 initially.
A close below 3702 it'll crash down to 3477.
STOCKS TO WATCH
RELIANCE: (1961) 1945 & 1877 crucial support & trend decider. 2073 7 2127 crucial resistance & trend decider.
REL CAP: (1172) 1146-1135 & 1084 crucial supports to watch out for in further panic.
REL INFRA: (850) 820 & 802 crucial support & trend decider.
SBI: (1434) Looks weak. Break below 1422 expect further fall. 1350-1322 crucial support area to watch out for on extreme lower levels.
BOI, PNB & BOB: Looks weak.
ICICI Bank: (561) Looks bit weak. 518 a crucial support & trend decider.
AXIS Bank: (705) 702 & 725 crucial trend deciders.
KOTAK Bank: (569) Looks weak. Watch out for crucial support at 520-510 on extreme lower levels.
DLF: (370) Break below 365 expect 345 which is a major support to watch out for in extreme panic.
L&T: (2468) 2455 & 2402 crucial supports to watch out for in panic.
Email: shivaam2003@yahoo.com
Be extreme cautious in any fresh shorts in panic.
BSE index: (13102) Consider for this week...13020 a nearest support break below which it'll fall down further to 12945, 12866 & 12767 initially which are crucial supports. Break below 12767 sudden panic will drag it down to 12563 which is a most crucial support; buy on declines keeping stop loss of 12425.
Upward side 13390 a crucial resistance closing above which it'll turn bit positive & surge up to 13854. A close above 13854 it'll strengthen further & move up to 14221. A close above 14221 it'll turn total positive & spurt up to 15250.
Downward side a close below 12425 it'll turn very weak & fall down to 11900 & 11450. Consider 11900 to 11450 major long term supports in any panic.
* For investors buying at around 12500-12000 keeping stop loss of 11450 seems best risk reward ratio.
Nifty: (3985) Consider for this week...Expect it to fall down further to 3947, 3919 & 3866. Buy on declines keeping stop loss of 3799.
Upward side 4052 a nearest crucial resistance closing above which it'll turn bit positive & spurt up to 4199 initially. A close above 4199 it'll strengthen further & move up to 4303-4329.
A close above 4329 it'll turn total positive & shoot up to 4614 in coming days.
Downward side break below 3799 it'll turn very weak & fall down further to 3753 & 3702 initially.
A close below 3702 it'll crash down to 3477.
STOCKS TO WATCH
RELIANCE: (1961) 1945 & 1877 crucial support & trend decider. 2073 7 2127 crucial resistance & trend decider.
REL CAP: (1172) 1146-1135 & 1084 crucial supports to watch out for in further panic.
REL INFRA: (850) 820 & 802 crucial support & trend decider.
SBI: (1434) Looks weak. Break below 1422 expect further fall. 1350-1322 crucial support area to watch out for on extreme lower levels.
BOI, PNB & BOB: Looks weak.
ICICI Bank: (561) Looks bit weak. 518 a crucial support & trend decider.
AXIS Bank: (705) 702 & 725 crucial trend deciders.
KOTAK Bank: (569) Looks weak. Watch out for crucial support at 520-510 on extreme lower levels.
DLF: (370) Break below 365 expect 345 which is a major support to watch out for in extreme panic.
L&T: (2468) 2455 & 2402 crucial supports to watch out for in panic.
Email: shivaam2003@yahoo.com
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
NSE STOCK WATCH
SBI: (1503) Looks very weak, sell. Expect 1475-1463 & 1434. Consider 1434 a most crucial support & trend decider.
JSWSL & TISCO: Looks very weak, sell.
RIL: (2010) Break below 2000 expect heavy selling. 1950-1940 support area to watch out for.
REL CAP: (1215) 1187 a nearest crucial support to watch out for.
KOTAK Bank: (594) 578 & 555 crucial support & trend decider. Buy in panic.
L&T: (2530) 2504 & 2439 crucial support & trend decider.
LITL & NCC: Looks weak.
DLF: (395) 389 a nearest support & trend decider.
MARUTI: (701) Break below 694 expect 681. Selling on higher levels will be seen.
SATYAM & INFOSYS: 318 & 1457 supports to watch out for in further panic.
JSWSL & TISCO: Looks very weak, sell.
RIL: (2010) Break below 2000 expect heavy selling. 1950-1940 support area to watch out for.
REL CAP: (1215) 1187 a nearest crucial support to watch out for.
KOTAK Bank: (594) 578 & 555 crucial support & trend decider. Buy in panic.
L&T: (2530) 2504 & 2439 crucial support & trend decider.
LITL & NCC: Looks weak.
DLF: (395) 389 a nearest support & trend decider.
MARUTI: (701) Break below 694 expect 681. Selling on higher levels will be seen.
SATYAM & INFOSYS: 318 & 1457 supports to watch out for in further panic.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Weekly Trading Highlights. 22nd sep. 2008.
The week that went by
Global markets witnessed one of the most volatile trades in the week that went by - a heavy fall and a tremendous pull back rally.
The global stock indices plunked heavily on the back of the failure news from the US financial giant Lehman Brothers, and further from AIG
Inc., and then Merrill Lynch which was later bought by Bank of America. AIG had to seek refuge with the government to avoid a collapse.
Later the markets recovered as a result of the decision announced by the major central banks to pump liquidity heavily into the banking
systems to overcome the turmoil. Apart from this, the short covering, as a result of the temporary ban imposed by US and UK, added to the
surge in the European and US markets. US’ Securities Exchange Commission banned short selling in 799 financial stocks; while UK.’s
Financial Service Authority also banned the short-selling in Financial company shares.
Almost all the stock exchanges through out the world rallied tremendously, recovering about 7-9% from the week’s low. Russia led the rally with
a 22% jump from the week’s low.
NSE Nifty, after opening at 4231, crashed to 3799 in the first 4 days of the week’s trading. The recovery emerged from there and the index
closed at 4245, making a weekly gain of 14 points. BSE Sensex opened at 13663, and fell to 12558, falling nearly 1100 points; later recovered the
loss and closed at 14042.
Technical Outlook :
The Indian markets have bounced back remarkable from the week’s lows.
Momentum indicators are indicating some more upside. Stochastic Oscillators is showing the upside to continue a little further. RSI is trading
above the 50 points mark.
At current levels 4380 is expected to act as the Critical level for the NSE Nifty. A trade above this can find resistance at 4490. The major support
for the week can be expected to come at 4175, followed by 3975.
Market is expected to open with a positive bias and can show some more upside in the first trading sessions of the coming week. later, selling
pressure is expected to emerge from higher levels.
Week Ahead :
The global market sentiments are going to guide the market in the week ahead. After the initial reaction the rising Crude Oil price and the Indo-
US nuclear deal come back to the scenario.
The lack of substantiative open interest build up in the Nifty futures, despite of such a tremendous rally is indicative that the upside is more
contributed by short-covering, rather than fresh positions buildups. The fact that the global market rally, especially those in US and UK, who
led the pack, are due to the short-covering is also adding to the cause of concern.
The chances for the index to sustain at higher levels is doubtful, at this point of time.
Global markets witnessed one of the most volatile trades in the week that went by - a heavy fall and a tremendous pull back rally.
The global stock indices plunked heavily on the back of the failure news from the US financial giant Lehman Brothers, and further from AIG
Inc., and then Merrill Lynch which was later bought by Bank of America. AIG had to seek refuge with the government to avoid a collapse.
Later the markets recovered as a result of the decision announced by the major central banks to pump liquidity heavily into the banking
systems to overcome the turmoil. Apart from this, the short covering, as a result of the temporary ban imposed by US and UK, added to the
surge in the European and US markets. US’ Securities Exchange Commission banned short selling in 799 financial stocks; while UK.’s
Financial Service Authority also banned the short-selling in Financial company shares.
Almost all the stock exchanges through out the world rallied tremendously, recovering about 7-9% from the week’s low. Russia led the rally with
a 22% jump from the week’s low.
NSE Nifty, after opening at 4231, crashed to 3799 in the first 4 days of the week’s trading. The recovery emerged from there and the index
closed at 4245, making a weekly gain of 14 points. BSE Sensex opened at 13663, and fell to 12558, falling nearly 1100 points; later recovered the
loss and closed at 14042.
Technical Outlook :
The Indian markets have bounced back remarkable from the week’s lows.
Momentum indicators are indicating some more upside. Stochastic Oscillators is showing the upside to continue a little further. RSI is trading
above the 50 points mark.
At current levels 4380 is expected to act as the Critical level for the NSE Nifty. A trade above this can find resistance at 4490. The major support
for the week can be expected to come at 4175, followed by 3975.
Market is expected to open with a positive bias and can show some more upside in the first trading sessions of the coming week. later, selling
pressure is expected to emerge from higher levels.
Week Ahead :
The global market sentiments are going to guide the market in the week ahead. After the initial reaction the rising Crude Oil price and the Indo-
US nuclear deal come back to the scenario.
The lack of substantiative open interest build up in the Nifty futures, despite of such a tremendous rally is indicative that the upside is more
contributed by short-covering, rather than fresh positions buildups. The fact that the global market rally, especially those in US and UK, who
led the pack, are due to the short-covering is also adding to the cause of concern.
The chances for the index to sustain at higher levels is doubtful, at this point of time.
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